The market moved
-4.5ppin 24h · now 6¢
Will 240 or more ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2?
Geopolitics · resolves Aug 2 · vol $72.88
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 6¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.5pp shift. Resolution depends on imf — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: IMF — https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.