The market moved
-3.0ppin 24h · now 26¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
Geopolitics · resolves Jun 30 · vol $2.2K
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 26¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.0pp shift. Resolution depends on imf — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: IMF — https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.