The market moved
+7.5ppin 24h · now 25¢
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?
Geopolitics · resolves Jun 21 · vol $65.86
Why
Probability rose decisively up to 25¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 7.5pp shift. Resolution depends on imf — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: IMF — https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.