Will a 6.0+ earthquake occur in Japan by August 31?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 43¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 15.5pp shift. Resolution depends on the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the first preferred magnitude, country attribution and timestamp of the event in question — https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.