Will a hurricane form by May 31?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 2¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.3pp shift. Resolution depends on nhc.noaa.gov — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: nhc.noaa.gov — https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/).
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.