Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 30¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.5pp shift. Resolution depends on from the cphc advisory or special advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisor — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: from the CPHC advisory or Special Advisory in effect at the time closest to the reported landfall time; where no advisor — https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cphc/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.