Will a hurricane make landfall in the US by August 31?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 0¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on an initial advisory released by the nhc that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous united states within — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within — https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.