Will a new Supreme Court Justice be confirmed before Nov 3rd, 2020?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 0¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on supreme court — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Supreme Court — https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appointment_and_confirmation_to_the_Supreme_Court_of_the_United_States.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.