Will a player from the United States of America win the 2026 U.S. Open?

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 77¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 34.5pp shift. Resolution depends on to the listed nationality of the 2026 us open champion — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the listed nationality of the 2026 US Open champion.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 31.8h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.