The market moved
+0.0ppin 24h · now 42¢
Will a tropical cyclone form in either the Pacific or Central Pacific basins by August 14?
Other · resolves Aug 15 · vol $320.18
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 42¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on nhc.noaa.gov — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: nhc.noaa.gov — https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.