The market moved
+0.1ppin 24h · now 99¢
Will a tropical cyclone make landfall on Honshu in August 2026?
Other · resolves Sep 1 · vol $115.26
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 99¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.1pp shift. Resolution depends on credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: credible reporting — https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.