The market moved
+0.0ppin 24h · now 11¢
Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
Other · resolves Dec 31 · vol $0.00
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 11¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: NATO — https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/).
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.