The market moved
-5.5ppin 24h · now 18¢
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium?
Geopolitics · resolves Dec 31 · vol $205.00
Why
Probability fell decisively down to 18¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 5.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.