The market moved

-1.2ppin 24h · now

Will Aaron Baker be the Republican nominee for FL-06?

Politics · resolves Aug 18 · vol $61.54

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 5¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.2pp shift. Resolution depends on to the candidate who wins the nomination for the republican party to contest the fl-06 congressional district seat in th — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-06 congressional district seat in th — https://www.rnc.org/.
  • Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.
-1.2pp · Will Aaron Baker be the Republican nominee for FL-06? | Orrery