Will AfD win 23-25 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 8¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.0pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.