Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 32¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 4.0pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.