Will Ahsanul Hafiz win the 2026 Scarborough Southwest provincial by-election?

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 65¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 26.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.elections.on.ca/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.