The market moved

-5.0ppin 24h · now 12¢

Will Alibaba have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?

AI · resolves Sep 30 · vol $40.00

Why

Probability fell decisively down to 12¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 5.0pp shift. Resolution depends on to the company which owns the model with the highest coding score on livebench — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench — https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding.
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.