Will Alibaba have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of August 2026?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 32¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.0pp shift. Resolution depends on to the company which owns the model with the highest overall score on livebench — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the company which owns the model with the highest Overall score on LiveBench — https://livebench.ai/.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.