Will Amber Craig win the 2026 Greater Wellington Regional Council by-election?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 25¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 14.0pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.gw.govt.nz/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 20.0h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.