Will an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize before August?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.2pp shift. Resolution depends on an announcement by the ai-mo prize, xtx markets or the imo — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: an announcement by the AI-MO Prize, XTX Markets or the IMO — https://aimoprize.com/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.