Will André Ventura win the first round by less than 2%?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 14.4pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.cne.pt/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.