The market moved
-1.5ppin 24h · now 68¢
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of July 2026?
AI · resolves Jul 31 · vol $14.46
Why
Probability fell slightly down to 68¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.5pp shift. Resolution depends on chatbot arena llm leaderboard — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard — https://lmarena.ai/).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.