Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 99¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.9pp shift. Resolution depends on chatbot arena llm leaderboard — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard — https://lmarena.ai/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 29.3h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.