Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by April 30?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.5pp shift. Resolution depends on department of defense which are actively using anthropic — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: Department of Defense which are actively using Anthropic.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.