The market moved

-1.3ppin 24h · now 18¢

Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?

AI · resolves Dec 31 · vol $354.40

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 18¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.3pp shift. Resolution depends on chatbot arena llm leaderboard — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard — https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control.
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.