The market moved
-3.0ppin 24h · now 92¢
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
Other · resolves Jan 10 · vol $55.36
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 92¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.0pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible sources — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible sources — https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.