Will anyone say "Bastard" during House of the Dragon E7 S3?

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 17¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 4.5pp shift. Resolution depends on what has been released up to that point — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

Resolution status: proposed — verify before treating this as news.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: what has been released up to that point — https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• UMA resolution status is "proposed". Source-risk is non-trivial — a move that unwinds on settlement isn't really news.