Will anyone say "Black" during President Curtis E3 S1?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 50¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.5pp shift. Resolution depends on what has been released up to that point — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: what has been released up to that point — https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.