Will anyone say "National Guard" 4+ times during 1st NYC mayoral debate on October 16?

Why

Probability rose sharply up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 48.6pp shift. Resolution depends on what has aired up to that point — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: what has aired up to that point — https://www.nycvotes.org/whats-on-the-ballot/2025-nyc-candidate-debates/.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.