Will anyone say "Pink" 10+ times during 2026 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 11¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 34.5pp shift. Resolution depends on the events of the entire official live broadcast, beginning from the start of the pre-show/early coverage and continuing — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the events of the entire official live broadcast, beginning from the start of the pre-show/early coverage and continuing — https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
• Market resolves in 3.9h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.