The market moved

-8.5ppin 24h · now 18¢

Will anyone say "Prophecy" during House of the Dragon E4 S3?

Other · resolves Jul 12 · vol $2.25

Why

Probability fell decisively down to 18¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 8.5pp shift. Resolution depends on what has been released up to that point — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: what has been released up to that point — https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/Event+Mentions+Contract+DeFi.pdf.
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
  • Market resolves in 40.2h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.