The market moved

+1.8ppin 24h · now 46¢

Will Ariana Grande feature Imogen Heap on Petal?

Other · resolves Jul 31 · vol $0.00

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 46¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 1.8pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

  • Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting.
  • Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
  • Market resolves in 43.5h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.