The market moved
-10.9ppin 24h · now 1¢
Will Benjamin Kincaid advance to the general election for WA-01?
Politics · resolves Aug 4 · vol $1.8K
Why
Probability fell sharply down to 1¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 10.9pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.