Will Biden's 538 approval reach 40% in August?

Why

Probability rose slightly up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 1.5pp shift. Resolution depends on projects.fivethirtyeight.com — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: projects.fivethirtyeight.com — https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.