The market moved
-2.5ppin 24h · now 22¢
Will Bola Oyebamiji win the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial elections?
Geopolitics · resolves Aug 15 · vol $0.76
Why
Probability fell modestly down to 22¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.5pp shift. Resolution depends on nato — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: nato — https://inecnigeria.org).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.