Will Brandon Dukes win the special election to fill the Pennsylvania House of Representatives District 12 seat?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 13¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 3.0pp shift. Resolution depends on to the winner of this election — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the winner of this election — https://www.electionreturns.pa.gov/.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.