Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 1.5% and 1.8%?

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 41¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 3.5pp shift. Resolution depends on gdp release — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: GDP release — https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html.
• Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.