Will Cait Conley win the NY-17 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?

Why

Probability fell sharply down to 9¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 16.0pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://elections.ny.gov/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.