Will Caley McDonald win the 2026 Cornwall-Meadowbank PEI Legislative Assembly by-election?

Why

Probability fell decisively down to 26¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 6.0pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.electionspei.ca/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.