Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?

Why

Probability rose modestly up to 6¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 3.5pp shift. Resolution depends on consensus of credible reporting — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: consensus of credible reporting — https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.