Will Canada’s February 2026 unemployment rate be ≤6.2%?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.0pp shift. Resolution depends on to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by statistics canada in the labour forc — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (15 years and over, total) reported by Statistics Canada in the Labour Forc — https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.