Will China become the #2 global art market in 2026?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 14¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 2.5pp shift. Resolution depends on to the annual art basel and ubs global art market report covering the 2026 calendar year — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the annual Art Basel and UBS Global Art Market Report covering the 2026 calendar year.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.