The market moved
+4.5ppin 24h · now 46¢
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.3% and 4.6%?
Macro · resolves Oct 20 · vol $13.50
Why
Probability rose modestly up to 46¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 4.5pp shift. Resolution depends on gdp release — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: GDP release — https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.