The market moved
+0.0ppin 24h · now 5¢
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
Geopolitics · resolves Sep 30 · vol $10.4K
Why
Probability rose slightly up to 5¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 0.0pp shift. Resolution depends on united nations — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: United Nations.
- Read recent whale flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.