The market moved
+32.0ppin 24h · now 100¢
Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31?
Geopolitics · resolves Dec 31 · vol $0.00
Why
Probability rose sharply up to 100¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 32.0pp shift. Resolution depends on official government information — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: Official government information — https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/13/business/china-rare-earths-exports.html.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.