Will Citigroup (C) Q2 provision for credit losses be above $2.9B?

Why

Probability fell modestly down to 50¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 4.0pp shift. Resolution depends on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials.
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.