The market moved
-0.1ppin 24h · now 0¢
Will claude-fable-5 be the best AI model on July 25, 2026?
AI · resolves Jul 25 · vol $131.47
Why
Probability fell slightly down to 0¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 0.1pp shift. Resolution depends on to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena — https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control.
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
- Market resolves in 46.6h — late-stage moves are often settlement positioning, not new information.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.