The market moved
+4.0ppin 24h · now 20¢
Will Claude go down 14+ times in August?
AI · resolves Aug 31 · vol $153.30
Why
Probability rose modestly up to 20¢ (toward YES) over the last 24 hours, a 4.0pp shift. Resolution depends on to the number of days in august 2026 during which claude (claude — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.
What to verify
- Cross-check the resolution source: to the number of days in August 2026 during which Claude (claude — https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
- Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.
share-card v2Public Polymarket data · no editorial.