Will Claude go down 3-5 times in July?

Why

Probability fell slightly down to 12¢ (toward NO) over the last 24 hours, a 1.0pp shift. Resolution depends on to the number of days in july 2026 during which claude (claude — directional traders may be reading new information from that source.

What to verify

• Cross-check the resolution source: to the number of days in July 2026 during which Claude (claude — https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
• Read recent large-trade flow on Orrery's market page — $5k+ trades show up alongside the move so you can tell if size is following the price or fading it.